ARK Invest Predicts Bitcoin Could Skyrocket to $2.4 Million by 2030

ARK Invest emphasizes that institutional investment is a significant driver in the bull case scenario. The firm estimates that Bitcoin could achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion global financial market (excluding gold) by 2030. This level of adoption would position Bitcoin as a formidable asset class alongside traditional investments.

Another critical factor in ARK's projection is Bitcoin's potential to capture a substantial share of gold's market capitalization. The report posits that Bitcoin could attain up to 60% of gold's $18 trillion market cap, reinforcing its status as "digital gold." This shift reflects a growing perception of Bitcoin as a reliable store of value, particularly in times of economic uncertainty.

Emerging markets also play a pivotal role in ARK's analysis. The firm suggests that Bitcoin's use as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation in developing countries could contribute significantly to its valuation. Specifically, this use case is projected to account for 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate in these regions.

Further contributions to Bitcoin's potential growth include adoption by nation-state treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and the expansion of on-chain financial services. Innovations such as Layer 2 networks and wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) are expected to bolster the cryptocurrency's utility and accessibility.

ARK's analysis also considers the impact of Bitcoin's "active" supply, discounting coins that are lost or held long-term. By applying this liveliness-adjusted supply metric, the bull case price target increases from the original $1.5 million to the updated $2.4 million. The firm notes that Bitcoin's scarcity and lost supply are often underrepresented in valuation models, suggesting additional upside potential.

While these projections are ambitious, ARK Invest acknowledges the challenges ahead, including regulatory hurdles, technological developments, and market volatility. Nonetheless, the firm's optimistic outlook underscores a growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term viability as a mainstream financial asset.

As of April 25, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000, having recovered from a low of $75,160 earlier this year. The cryptocurrency's resilience and increasing institutional interest continue to fuel discussions about its future trajectory.

Investors and market observers will closely monitor Bitcoin's performance and adoption trends as it navigates the path toward ARK Invest's projected milestones.