Bitcoin Surges Toward $105K as U.S.-China Trade Progress Lifts Markets

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin rallied to ~$105K over the weekend, driven by optimism over U.S.-China trade talks.
• The White House and Treasury signaled “substantial progress” in negotiations, with a deal possibly imminent.
• $2.68B in weekly inflows to Bitcoin ETFs reflects strong institutional interest.
• Broader markets are rallying in tandem, suggesting renewed appetite for risk.
• Analysts say Bitcoin is cementing its role as a macroeconomic barometer.

The rally reflects growing optimism that global trade tensions may be easing, particularly after the White House said "substantial progress" had been made in trade discussions with Beijing. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the two sides had achieved a “total reset” in their economic relationship following several high-level meetings in Geneva.

Supporting the President’s remarks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer released a joint statement on Friday confirming significant advancements in negotiations.

“I am happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks."

Though specific terms of the potential deal remain under wraps, officials signaled that mutual tariff reductions and expanded U.S. access to Chinese markets are at the core of the talks. An official joint communiqué is expected as early as Monday.

These developments follow months of escalating trade tensions. In early 2025, the U.S. had imposed 145% tariffs on a broad range of Chinese imports, citing unfair industrial policies. China responded with retaliatory duties of up to 125%, stoking fears of a prolonged trade war. Recent negotiations suggest a de-escalation may be imminent, which could have profound implications for global trade flows, inflation, and investment appetite.

The crypto market was quick to respond to the geopolitical thaw. Bitcoin's weekend rally was supported by strong inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which collectively saw $2.68 billion in net inflows this past week, marking their highest level since December 2024.

Ethereum, Solana and other major altcoins also posted modest weekend gains, though Bitcoin remains the market’s primary momentum driver.

Equity markets mirrored crypto’s optimism. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted gains in weekend trading. Commodities markets also reflected the improved sentiment, with copper and crude oil prices ticking upward on hopes of stronger global demand.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained relatively steady, indicating that fixed-income investors are taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of formal announcements on trade and inflation data due later in the week.

Bitcoin’s correlation with macroeconomic trends has grown significantly in recent years, with institutional adoption and ETF-based access amplifying its responsiveness to shifts in policy and geopolitics. Analysts note that this latest rally underscores Bitcoin’s evolving role as a “geopolitical hedge”, a narrative that gained traction during the COVID-19 recovery and the Ukraine conflict.

The positive weekend headlines come just weeks after the post-halving consolidation period, during which Bitcoin traded largely sideways in the $97,000–$102,000 range. Many market participants had speculated that the halving had already been priced in. However, new macro catalysts now appear to be setting the stage for a fresh leg up.

While optimism is palpable, some analysts are urging caution until a formal trade deal is announced. Previous U.S.-China negotiations under both the Trump and Biden administrations have produced multiple “phases” of agreements that later unraveled.

Still, with the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, inflation cooling, and trade risks potentially receding, the current environment is arguably the most constructive for Bitcoin since early 2021.