Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, predicts that Bitcoin might climb to $500,000 by late 2028.. [Image Source: Shutterstock]A major driver behind this projection is the increasing adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which allow institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. Since their approval in January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a staggering $39 billion in net inflows—a clear sign of strong investor demand.
Kendrick compares this to the rise of gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the early 2000s. Between 2004 and 2011, gold prices jumped 4.3 times as ETPs made gold more accessible to investors. He expects Bitcoin to follow a similar pattern but on a faster timeline of about two years due to the already massive institutional interest.
One of the biggest barriers to Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption has been its high price volatility. However, as more institutional investors enter the market and ETF trading matures, Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to drop significantly.
Currently, Bitcoin's three-month at-the-market volatility sits at around 55%, but Standard Chartered projects it could fall to 45% within the next two to three years. Lower volatility makes Bitcoin a more attractive asset for pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and traditional investment firms, leading to higher capital inflows.
Another key factor driving Bitcoin’s long-term price growth is the increasing adoption by large institutional players. Recently, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund revealed a 4,700 BTC investment in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, signaling growing confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.
As more government-backed funds and institutions diversify their portfolios with Bitcoin, demand is expected to rise further, helping to propel prices to new highs.
Regulatory developments in the United States and other major economies have also contributed to Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Recent changes, such as relaxed accounting rules for digital assets and discussions about a potential Bitcoin reserve strategy, have helped create a more favorable environment for institutional investment.
These shifts in policy could encourage more financial institutions and corporations to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets, further increasing demand.
Standard Chartered has laid out an aggressive price trajectory for Bitcoin over the next few years:
If these predictions hold, Bitcoin could stabilize around the $500,000 mark through 2029, assuming continued institutional adoption and a maturing market.
While Standard Chartered’s forecast is optimistic, Bitcoin’s price remains highly volatile in the short term. The asset is currently trading around $84,495, with significant daily fluctuations. Investors should remain cautious and consider their risk tolerance before making large-scale investments.
However, if the trends of ETF-driven adoption, declining volatility, and institutional investment continue, Bitcoin could very well be on its way to reaching half a million dollars per coin within the next four years.
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